vbWBTC / AUSD — Borrow-Rate Projection (next 60 days)

Morpho Blue · Katana (chain 747474) · LLTV 86% · 0xbeb2…b20d · snapshot 2026-06-10
Borrow APY now
22.3%
Utilization
100%
Rate at target
5.2%
Supplied / Idle
$1.06M / $0

An adaptive ramp, not a stable trend

All $1.06M is borrowed — utilization is pinned at 100%, above the 90% target. Morpho's Adaptive Curve IRM responds by pushing the rate up continuously, roughly doubling every ~5 days (3.3% → 22.3% in the last week). The line below extrapolates that mechanism forward; it isn't a forecast that the rate will sit there.

Historical (7d) Projection — utilization stays 100%

Log scale. The IRM caps rate-at-target at 200%/yr (→ 4× = 800% APR ≈ 298,000% APY), reached ~Jul 7. That ceiling is mechanical, not a prediction.

Projection table

DateBorrow APY (if utilization stays 100%)
Bottom line: The rate climbs only while utilization stays at 100%. In practice the high rate draws deposits and forces repayment; once utilization falls back toward 90%, borrow APY snaps down to the target rate (~5%, higher the longer the squeeze lasts). Expect a spike, then reversion — watch utilization for the turn.
Method: borrow rate = 4 × rate-at-target at 100% utilization; rate-at-target grows as exp(50/yr × t) while utilization > 90% target, capped at 200%/yr. Anchored to live values (rate-at-target 5.17%, borrow APY 22.32%); reproduces the current rate to within 0.03%. Educational analysis of protocol mechanics — not financial advice.